Ex-post evaluation of EU Afghanistan Peace Support Mechanism (phases I and II), and Mid-term evaluation of NDICI Crisis Afghanistan Inclusive Dialogue Initiative (AIDI) 

This report presents an ex-post evaluation of APSM I/II and a midterm evaluation of AIDI, assessing the EU’s support to intra-Afghan dialogue and inclusive peace from 2019 to 2023 using OECD-DAC criteria and EU added value.

This report evaluates the EU’s dialogue and peace programming in Afghanistan across APSM I (2019–2020), APSM II (2020–2022) and AIDI (2022–2024), assessing implementation up to Nov 2023. It uses a strategic, theory-based approach and OECD-DAC criteria plus EU added value, based on document review and interviews.

Findings: relevance remains high and the sequence is coherent and adaptable. Before Aug 2021, APSM supported Afghan-led consultations and Track II/III dialogue, strengthened civil society (notably women and youth), and built trust and peace narratives with intended links to national talks. After the Taliban takeover, the focus shifted to keeping dialogue options alive at community level, supporting civil society capacity and risk management, and enabling limited engagement with de facto authorities.

Impact is judged mainly indirect: sustaining parts of civil society and preserving opportunities for future inclusive peace rather than achieving a settlement. Sustainability is limited without continued EU funding. Recommendations stress maintaining a clear political positioning on inclusive, Afghan-led peace, deepening context analysis, broadening outreach, strengthening local third-party monitoring and learning, and addressing barriers to participation, including for women and persons with disabilities.