Mid-term evaluation of the project “Stabilisation of Tajikistan’s southern border region with Afghanistan (Phase 2)”

This report assesses progress and lessons for Phase 2, implemented by OSCE POiD, to strengthen Tajik border and emergency services’ capacities against cross-border threats and disasters, including potential refugee influxes from Afghanistan.

The report presents a mid-term evaluation of the EU-funded project “Stabilisation of Tajikistan’s Southern Border Region with Afghanistan – Phase 2” (€4.6m), financed under NDICI Crisis Response and implemented by the OSCE Programme Office in Dushanbe. The action aims to strengthen the Tajik Border Troops’ capacity to address cross-border threats and potential refugee influxes, and to enhance the Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defence (CoESCD) in disaster response. Activities include training, equipment provision and infrastructure works, with some attention to conflict sensitivity and gender.

The evaluation uses mixed methods (desk review, interviews, site visits and observation), with fieldwork conducted in Tajikistan in October 2023. A major limitation is the lack of reliable data against the results framework, which restricts outcome measurement. Findings confirm high relevance and alignment with national and EU objectives, but point to weaknesses in the results framework, needs assessments and coordination, including overlaps with other initiatives. Effectiveness is positive for trainings and some equipment, while efficiency is affected by management turnover and procurement delays. Cross-cutting gaps include limited progress on women’s empowerment and lack of disability access. Recommendations focus on improving management and procurement, strengthening indicators and M&E, enhancing EU visibility, and reinforcing sustainability and resilience.